Here is a synthesized overview of the major US tariffs enacted or proposed in 2025, based on the provided model responses.
Note on Model Consensus
There is a significant disagreement among the provided models regarding the status of 2025 tariffs.
- Majority View (6 of 8 models): A clear majority of models [Google AI, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Mistral, Minimax, ChatGLM] report that a wide range of specific, new tariffs were enacted by the US administration in 2025.
- Minority View (2 of 8 models): Two models [Qwen, Z] state that, as of their knowledge cutoff (implied to be 2024), no new tariffs had been enacted in 2025, and they instead analyze proposals for 2025 from a 2024 perspective.
This synthesis will primarily detail the majority view and its analysis, followed by a summary of the minority contradictory position.
Major US Tariffs Enacted in 2025 (Majority View)
The consensus among the majority of models indicates a significant shift in trade policy in 2025, characterized by broad new tariffs.
Core Tariff Actions
| Tariff Action | Target / Scope | Rate(s) | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universal Baseline Tariff | Imports from “nearly all” countries [Google AI]; excludes USMCA [Mistral]. | 10% | April 2025 [Google AI, Mistral, DeepSeek, ChatGLM] |
| Tariffs on China | All goods from China, Hong Kong, and Macau. | Escalated rapidly to 125%-145% [Google AI, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, ChatGLM]. Later reduced to 30% following a truce/agreement [Google AI, DeepSeek, Minimax, ChatGLM]. | Feb–May 2025 |
| Steel & Aluminum Tariffs | Global steel and aluminum imports. | Increased from 25% to 50% [Google AI, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, ChatGLM, Minimax]. | June 4, 2025 [Google AI, DeepSeek, ChatGLM] |
| Automotive Tariffs | Imported automobiles and auto parts. | 25% | April 3, 2025 [Google AI, DeepSeek, ChatGLM] |
| Tariffs on Canada & Mexico | Non-USMCA goods. | 25% - 35% [ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Mistral]. Some models specify as “fentanyl” tariffs [ChatGPT, Minimax]. | March 2025 |
| Tariffs on India | Indian exports. | 25% [Google AI] or 50% [DeepSeek, Mistral]. | August 2025 [Google AI, DeepSeek, Mistral] |
| Tariffs on Brazil | Brazilian goods. | 40% - 50% [Google AI, DeepSeek, Mistral]. | August 2025 [DeepSeek, Mistral] |
Other Notable Tariff Actions
- De Minimis Suspension: The $800 duty-free threshold for imports was suspended [Google AI, DeepSeek], effective August 29, 2025 [Google AI, DeepSeek]. One model noted a specific elimination for China/HK [Mistral].
- Sector-Specific Tariffs: Several models noted additional tariffs on specific sectors, including:
- Wood, lumber, and furniture [ChatGPT, ChatGLM]
- Ship-to-shore cranes (100%) [ChatGPT]
- Copper (50%) [DeepSeek, ChatGLM]
- Proposed Tariffs: One model also listed proposed actions, including a 100% tariff on computer chips and new Section 232 investigations into other sectors [ChatGPT].
Minority View (Contradictory Position)
Two models [Qwen, Z] report that no major tariffs were enacted in 2025, stating that their knowledge base reflects 2024.
- These models frame the prompt as a hypothetical, analyzing proposals for 2025 rather than enacted policies [Z, Qwen].
- The proposals they analyze include a potential 10% universal baseline tariff, a 60% (or higher) tariff on Chinese goods [Z], and a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs [Qwen].
- They analyze the current (Biden) administration’s actions as focusing on reviews, exclusions, and “friend-shoring” rather than new, broad tariffs [Qwen, Z].
Economic Effects (Majority View Analysis)
Models analyzing the enacted 2025 tariffs reported significant, negative macroeconomic effects.
- On Consumers & Inflation:
- All models in the majority agreed the tariffs increased consumer costs and inflation.
- [Conflict] Estimates for the average cost per US household vary: $1,300 [Google AI, Mistral, Minimax, ChatGLM], $1,800 [Google AI], or $3,800 [DeepSeek, Mistral].
- The price level was projected to rise by 1.3% to 2.3% [Google AI, Minimax, DeepSeek, Mistral].
- The impact was noted as being regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households [DeepSeek, Minimax].
- On GDP & Growth:
- All models agreed the tariffs would reduce US GDP growth.
- [Conflict] Projections for the GDP reduction varied widely, from 0.23% [Minimax] and 0.5%–0.8% [Google AI] up to 1.3% [Mistral] or 2.6% [ChatGLM].
- On Federal Revenue:
- A majority of models noted the tariffs would generate significant new federal revenue [Google AI, ChatGPT, Mistral, Minimax].
- Estimates included $195 billion for FY2025 [Mistral, ChatGPT] or $2.0–$2.4 trillion over the next decade [Google AI].
- On Labor Market:
- The tariffs were projected to negatively impact the labor market, with one estimate citing a loss of 490,000 payroll jobs [Google AI].
Geopolitical Effects (Majority View Analysis)
- Retaliation: All models in the majority group agreed that major US trading partners, including China, the EU, and Canada, responded with retaliatory tariffs on US goods [Google AI, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Mistral, Minimax, ChatGLM].
- Strained Alliances: The unilateral tariffs strained geopolitical relationships with key allies, including Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan [Google AI, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, ChatGLM].
- Supply Chains: The policies created significant global economic uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, and accelerated strategic realignment (e.g., “friend-shoring”) as countries and businesses sought to diversify away from high-tariff jurisdictions [Google AI, DeepSeek, Mistral, ChatGLM].
- International Institutions: Several models noted that the tariff actions bypassed and weakened international institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) [ChatGPT, ChatGLM].